Tesla stock (TSLA) moved lower on Tuesday even as analysts grew more optimistic about the company’s near-term vehicle deliveries.
Shares of the electric vehicle maker fell about 2% in early trading to $402.39, while the broader market was rallying, with the S&P 500 higher by roughly 1.6%.
The decline came as SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and artificial intelligence company, continued its post-IPO surge.
SpaceX shares rose about 8% to $208.39, giving the company a market value of approximately $2.8 trillion.
By comparison, Tesla’s market capitalization stood near $1.3 trillion.
Goldman Sachs raises delivery forecast
Despite the stock’s decline, Goldman Sachs expressed increased confidence in Tesla’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries.
The bank reiterated its Neutral rating and maintained a $375 price target while raising its second-quarter 2026 delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000 previously.
That forecast now sits above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 400,000 vehicles.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said monthly and weekly sales data across key regions, including the United States, Europe, and China, suggest Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries are tracking ahead of market expectations.
“We believe that Tesla’s 2Q26 vehicle deliveries are likely tracking ahead of consensus,” Delaney wrote.
According to Goldman Sachs, Europe has been one of Tesla’s strongest-performing regions during the quarter.
The firm said European registration data through May showed year-over-year growth of roughly 85% to 90%, while countries reporting June daily data indicated a strong start to the month, with deliveries rising about 20%.
Goldman Sachs noted that part of the increase reflects favorable comparisons against weak results in the prior year period.
Tesla’s European deliveries declined 29% year over year during the second quarter of 2025, creating a relatively low comparison base.
Elsewhere, the bank said Chinese sales data from the China Passenger Car Association points to high single-digit year-over-year growth through May.
Other Asia-Pacific markets have also reported encouraging results. South Korea and Australia have both delivered strong sales performance on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis through May.
In the United States, however, deliveries remain weaker. According to Motor Intelligence data cited by Goldman Sachs, US deliveries through May were tracking down by the mid-teens percentage range compared with a year earlier.
Growth remains a key question
Improving delivery trends would be welcome news for Tesla after two consecutive years of declining electric vehicle sales.
Wall Street currently expects Tesla to deliver approximately 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, up from roughly 1.6 million in 2025.
However, analysts caution that growth is far from guaranteed.
Tesla faces difficult comparisons later in the year after delivering a record 497,000 vehicles during the third quarter of last year.
Those results were boosted by consumers rushing to purchase vehicles before the expiration of the federal $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit.
The removal of that incentive has weighed on broader industry demand, although Tesla’s sales have generally held up better than many competitors.
Investors remain focused on AI
While vehicle deliveries remain important, many investors are increasingly valuing Tesla based on its artificial intelligence ambitions rather than its automotive business alone.
Tesla launched its AI-trained robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, about a year ago and has since expanded operations into a few more cities.
Investors continue to watch closely for signs of broader robotaxi deployment, believing that a larger autonomous-driving network could unlock a significant new revenue stream for the company.
Another closely watched catalyst is Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot program.
Investors are anticipating the unveiling of the third-generation Optimus robot, which could arrive later this summer.
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