A highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report is approaching, giving gold traders another major data point to assess after months of volatility in XAUUSD. Elev8, a global Contract for Difference broker, has released a market update examining how gold may react to labour market data, geopolitical pressure, and shifting monetary policy expectations.
The report comes at a difficult moment for gold. After a powerful multi-year rally, the precious metal has moved into a more fragile phase, pressured by profit-taking, higher energy prices, renewed inflation fears, and a more hawkish outlook for major central banks.
Gold’s Recent Performance
Gold experienced an exceptional rally between November 2022 and January 2026, more than tripling in value during that period. However, on 30 January 2026, XAUUSD recorded its steepest daily fall since 1983, raising questions about whether the multi-year bull run had reached exhaustion.
The selloff initially reflected profit-taking after a long upward move. It then accelerated after U.S. President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his preferred choice for the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh’s reputation as an inflation hawk led investors to reassess expectations for future monetary policy, reducing confidence in a rapid return to a dovish Fed.
Higher margin requirements at CME Group also compounded the pressure, adding to the speed and severity of the move.
Why Gold Has Struggled Despite Geopolitical Risk
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, gold has continued to trade under pressure. That has surprised many traders because gold usually performs well during periods of geopolitical instability.
Elev8 argues that the reason is relatively straightforward: the conflict in the Persian Gulf has pushed energy prices higher, reignited inflation fears, and changed monetary policy expectations across the G7 from dovish to hawkish.
“Before the conflict, the market theme for 2026 was a pivot toward lower interest rates, but the war has effectively paused that narrative,” said Kar Yong Ang, financial market expert at Elev8 broker.
Central banks face a difficult constraint. They cannot easily cut rates while energy-driven inflation remains unanchored. According to Elev8, the Federal Reserve is now expected to keep interest rates unchanged at least until January 2027, while other major central banks may consider rate hikes as early as June.
That synchronized hawkishness creates a difficult environment for gold, which typically benefits from lower real yields, weaker currencies, and expectations of easier monetary policy.
Trader Takeaway
How Important Is the NFP This Time?
The Nonfarm Payrolls report is historically one of the most influential economic releases for financial markets. It can move currencies, bonds, equities, commodities, and gold by changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
This time, however, Elev8 says the impact may be more limited than usual. The global investment community is currently focused on the Persian Gulf conflict, inflation risk, and uncertainty around Kevin Warsh’s likely policy stance. These broader drivers may overshadow one labour market report unless the data delivers a major surprise.
Recent U.S. labour data has also been mixed. Job openings increased significantly in April, but the hiring rate declined amid uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict. Resignations fell to the lowest level in nearly six years, suggesting workers are less confident about switching jobs. Economists continue to describe the labour market as “slow-hire, slow-fire.”
NFP Expectations and Gold Scenarios
The market expects the upcoming report to show a moderate 86,000 rise in payrolls, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and average hourly earnings slowing to 3.4% year-on-year.
A stronger-than-expected labour market print would likely reinforce the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative already priced into currencies and commodities. In that scenario, XAUUSD could lose the structural support area near 4,400, opening the way toward 4,310 and then 4,220.
For CFD traders, that kind of downside move would make risk controls especially important. Elev8 notes that traders may consider tightening stop-loss levels or reducing leverage ahead of the release, particularly if volatility increases around the data.
Bearish Gold Scenario
| Trigger | Stronger-than-expected NFP, steady unemployment, resilient wage growth |
| Market interpretation | Higher-for-longer Fed policy remains intact |
| XAUUSD risk | Break below 4,400 support |
| Next levels | 4,310, then 4,220 |
What Would Make Gold Rally?
For gold to rally meaningfully, Elev8 says the NFP report would need to miss expectations substantially. A negative payroll surprise, such as an outright drop in employment, could push XAUUSD above 4,600 and toward the next resistance zones at 4,680 and 4,770.
However, a sustained rally would require more than one weak jobs report. Monetary policy expectations would need to turn less hawkish, and that would likely depend on inflation cooling. In the current environment, cooling inflation depends heavily on political normalization in the Persian Gulf and lower energy-price pressure.
Bullish Gold Scenario
| Trigger | Major NFP downside surprise or negative payroll growth |
| Market interpretation | Fed policy expectations may soften |
| XAUUSD upside trigger | Move above 4,600 |
| Next resistance levels | 4,680, then 4,770 |
Trader Takeaway
Trading Gold With Elev8Trader
Elev8 broker clients can monitor these XAUUSD levels in real time on the Elev8Trader platform. Traders can adjust margin, stop-loss, and take-profit orders ahead of the NFP release while tracking market reaction around key support and resistance areas.
With the recent increase to 1:1000 leverage on XAUUSD CFDs, Elev8 says traders have additional flexibility when managing gold positions in the current market environment. At the same time, higher leverage increases both opportunity and risk, making position sizing and stop-loss discipline especially important.
Conclusion
The upcoming NFP report may still move gold, but Elev8’s analysis suggests it is not the only driver traders should watch. In the current market, XAUUSD is being shaped by a combination of labour data, geopolitical risk, energy prices, inflation expectations, dollar strength, and central bank policy.
A strong NFP print could push gold below key support and extend the bearish trend. A major downside surprise could trigger a rebound. But for a lasting rally, traders would likely need to see a broader shift in monetary policy expectations and relief from energy-driven inflation pressure.
Feature image suggestion: Use a gold trading dashboard visual showing XAUUSD candlesticks, NFP calendar event, Fed policy icons, dollar index, and geopolitical risk map elements. PNG, no text overlay.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk. Elev8 does not accept liability for any resulting losses or consequences.
About Elev8
Elev8 is a global broker offering a trading ecosystem with a wide range of instruments, analytical and educational tools, integrated AI solutions, and responsive customer support. The company also supports charitable and humanitarian initiatives worldwide.